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Celsius Crypto News

Insolvent Crypto Lender ‘Celsius’ Claims Ownership of Customer Deposits in Court

When deeply indebted crypto lender Celsius filed for bankruptcy last week, it was well known that the company had taken enormous risks with user deposits.

Now, in an astounding twist, Celsius’ lawyers have laid claim to most of these deposits, arguing that they were theirs all along:

Writing on the Wall

Prior to Celsius declaring bankruptcy, a report by The Wall Street Journal found that the lender carried more than twice the risk of a traditional bank, reflected in an assets-to-equity ratio of 19:1, compared to the median of North American banks, which is closer to 9:1.

Put differently, Celsius had more than double the liabilities of a traditional bank, making it intrinsically more risky. Couple that with a business model predicated on material leverage and one is left with little margin for error when the tide turns (as the crypto market has in 2022).

At the time, many were ringing the alarm bells, with one prominent crypto sceptic commenting in a piece titled “Why Celsius Network’s depositors won’t get their money back”:

Celsius is not an asset manager, it’s a shadow bank. And deposits in banks aren’t even ‘customer assets’, let alone ‘assets under management’. Celsius’ terms of use make it completely clear that customers who deposit funds in its interest-bearing accounts are lending their funds to Celsius to do with as it pleases. And it specifically says that in the event of bankruptcy, customers might not get all – or indeed any – of their money back.

Frances Coppola, financial journalist

Not Your Keys, Not Your Coins

Unfortunately for Celsius customers, Coppola’s assessment appears to have largely hit the mark, at least according to arguments being made by the Celsius legal team.

Three key segments of Celsius’ retail business were identified – “Earn”,
Borrow”, and “Custody”. Of these, 77 percent were in the “Earn” program, whereas just 4 percent were in the “Custody” program. In the case of insolvency, these differences are significant.

In terms of the company’s terms and conditions, “Earn” users effectively handed over ownership of their crypto to Celsius, who seemingly could do as it wished. Specifically, the wording provided that: “title to coins is transferred to Celsius, and Celsius is entitled to use, sell, pledge, and rehypothecate those coins”.

While the position of “Borrow” users is unclear, “Custody” users are said to retain ownership in their crypto, which sadly accounts for just 4 percent of users.

Attorney David Silver offered a scathing account of day one in Celsius’ insolvency proceedings, commenting:

Creative destruction is inevitable in all free markets, which necessarily entails pain (and, hopefully, some useful lessons for the future). Arguably, one of the key takeaways from this cycle is that the benefits of yield programs were vastly overstated, and the risks significantly misunderstood and understated.

Categories
Bitcoin Crypto News Market Analysis Markets

Bitcoin HODL Activity Suggests the Bottom Could Be In: Glassnode

According to on-chain analysts Glassnode, there are growing signals that the bottom may be in. Most recently, the firm revealed that over 80 percent of US dollar-denominated investments have not moved in three months, suggesting that holders are increasingly unwilling to sell any lower:

Bear Markets Look Alike

Glassnode argues that its “Realised Cap HODL Wave” metric clearly shows similar patterns to the bear markets of 2012, 2015 and 2018.

In brief, the metric intends to illustrate the relative economic weight stored by bitcoins of various holding times, and changes arising from holding and spending behaviour. For a more complete explanation, this useful overview is instructive.

BTC Realised Cap HODL Waves. Source: Glassnode

Bottom In?

Concurring with an earlier Glassnode assessment, Coinbase’s head of institutional research noted in its report that on-chain data revealed recent selling was “almost exclusively” short-term speculators. Long-term holders (in excess of six months), by contrast, were not found to be selling.

In fact, these HODLers were found to represent 77 percent of coins in circulation, which although down from 80 percent earlier this year, was viewed as a “positive sentiment” suggesting that holders were less likely to sell.

BTC HODLing. Source: Coinbase Analytics

Amid ongoing pressure of a negative macro and crypto environment, bitcoin’s price has remain subdued, recently slipping below US$19,000 on news of the US’ highest inflation print in 40 years.

Bitcoin has since somewhat recovered, and at the time of writing was trading at US23,300, above its 200-week moving average (MA) of US$22,600. Notwithstanding, technical analysts suggest that a definitive and sustained breakout above the 200-week MA is necessary to reverse the bearish trend.

Of course, we’ll only know in hindsight whether bitcoin bottomed out at US$17,500. However, from a Bitcoiner’s perspective, the fundamentals remain unchanged and if anything it’s offered a priceless opportunity to stack more sats for less.

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Australia CBDCs Crypto News Cryptocurrency Law Regulation Stablecoins

Reserve Bank of Australia Chief: Private Stablecoins May Be Better Than CBDCs

In a recent panel discussion of the G20 finance officials meeting in Indonesia, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) governor Philip Lowe signalled his support for privately issued stablecoins, subject to appropriate consumer protection guardrails.

Private Sector Better Suited to Issuing Digital Dollars?

Just weeks after Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers said that crypto would remain excluded from foreign currency tax arrangements, RBA head Lowe has said that privately issued stablecoins may be better than central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), provided the relevant companies are suitably regulated.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers (left) and RBA governor Philip Lowe (centre) represent Australia at the the 2022 G20 finance officials meeting. Source: The West Australian

In a panel discussion that included the inherent risks of decentralised finance (DeFi) projects, talk shifted to CBDCs and their potential application in both a retail or wholesale context.

With the recent implosion of “stablecoin” UST and Luna, regulation has come into sharp focus, an issue that no doubt partially informed the RBA chief’s comments on privately issued stablecoins:

If these tokens are going to used widely by the community they are going to need to be backed by the state, or regulated just as we regulate bank deposits.

Philip Lowe, RBA governor

Lowe added: “I tend to think that the private solution is going to be better – if we can get the regulatory arrangements right – because the private sector is better than the central bank at innovating and designing features for these tokens”.

As crypto regulation is one of the newly elected federal government’s stated priorities, those who oppose retail CBDCs on the basis of financial surveillance and infringements on freedom will be pleased to hear that the RBA governor is seemingly more inclined towards a free-market solution. However, that in itself provides no guarantee, as Tether (USDT) and Circle (USDC) have both been accused of censorship in the past.

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Celsius Crypto News

Embattled Crypto Lender ‘Celsius’ Files For Bankruptcy

In what some have described as crypto’s “Lehman moment”, troubled lender Celsius has officially filed for “financial restructuring” under Chapter 11 of the US Bankruptcy Code. 

Controversy Reigns

To many in the industry, Celsius has remained one of the more controversial businesses, with many citing its yield as unsustainable.

These claims go as far back as 2019, reflected in a “discussion” where the company’s founder Alex Mashinsky clashed with Bitcoiners Tone Vays and Saifedean Ammous regarding the company’s business model:

In many ways, the writing was on the wall as warning bells flashed in April as Celsius paused interest accounts for users. Later in June, the company halted user withdrawals, but only after sending US$320 million to crypto exchange FTX.

As crypto broker Voyager filed for bankruptcy, in addition to crypto lender Vauld freezing withdrawals, many felt that it would be a matter of time before Celsius caved.

Nail in the coffin

Late on July 13, Celsius finally confirmed it was initiating voluntary Chapter 11 proceedings to “stabilise its business and consummate a comprehensive restructuring transaction that maximises value for all stakeholders”.

Continuing, the board of directors said:

Today’s filing follows the difficult but necessary decision by Celsius last month to pause withdrawals, swaps, and transfers on its platform to stabilize its business and protect its customers. Without a pause, the acceleration of withdrawals would have allowed certain customers—those who were first to act—to be paid in full while leaving others behind to wait for Celsius to harvest value from illiquid or longer-term asset deployment activities before they receive a recovery.

Celsius board of directors’ statement

Interestingly, as Swan Bitcoin founder Cory Klippsten commented, it would appear as if beleaguered users are at the back of the queue when it comes to Celsius’ stakeholders:

While the company apparently has some US$167 million in cash, it noted that initial approval would be sought to allow payment to employees, but that it would “not be requesting authority to allow customer withdrawals at this time”.

While the announcement is not likely to be welcome news to users whose funds remained frozen, it does offer vindication for those who saw it in advance and managed to persuade users to jump ship:

Categories
Bitcoin Crypto News Onchain

Bitcoin Addresses Breach 1 Billion as Pressure Mounts on Diamond Hands

Despite 2022 being a “bear market of historic proportions” and waning institutional interest, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has revealed that the total number of unique Bitcoin addresses now exceeds 1 billion:

Bear Markets Bring About Wealth Redistribution

In its latest report, Glassnode notes that one of the main outcomes of a lengthy bear market is the redistribution of wealth among those who remain. This typically occurs in two distinct phases:

  1. Post All-Time High Phase (“Phase 1”) – short-term investors and speculators “gradually come to terms with the bear market reality and exit into a depreciating price trend”. In addition, some try to counter-trade any ongoing relief rallies.
  2. Bottom Discovery Phase (“Phase 2”) – characterised by “diminishing profitability and an extended period of financial pain”, which creates declining demand and further capitulation.

Mirroring the previous cycle, the report notes that the current 2022 market displays a clear pattern of redistribution around US$30,000 (Phase 1), and then as bitcoin gradually declined, US$20,000 represented a “significant trigger point for both investor capitulation, and new buyers, thus being a node for coins changing hands” (Phase 2):

Bitcoin Price Distribution. Source: Glassnode (Live Chart)

Capitulation of Diamond Hands

The report further notes that as bitcoin plummeted below US$30,000, even those with “diamond hands”, namely HODLers and well-capitalised miners, were selling at an average loss of 33 percent:

Bitcoin Losses for Long-Term Holders. Source: Glassnode (Live Chart)

While volumes have declined on both the retail and institutional fronts, it notes that on average, long-term holders are 14 percent in the red:

Bitcoin Losses/Gains for Long-Term Holders: Source: Glassnode (Live Chart)

Notwithstanding weak price action and significant macro headwinds, “shrimps”, defined as addresses holding less than one bitcoin, have been scooping up coins at a record rate:

At the same time, the Lightning Network capacity just hit an all-time high of 4,200 BTC, offering some welcome good news against a rather pessimistic backdrop.

Categories
Bitcoin Crypto News

Wall Street Expects Bitcoin to Plummet to $10,000: Survey

A recent study by MLIV Pulse has revealed that 60 percent of Wall Street investors surveyed believe that bitcoin is more likely to drop to US$10,000 than rise to US$30,000.

Investor Sentiment Remains Negative

According to 950 institutional investors, 60 percent believe that bitcoin’s value will more likely be cut in half than rise by 50 percent to reach US$30,000. This notably bearish bias is likely the product of both macro and crypto-specific factors.

MLIV Pulse Survey. Source: Bloomberg

Aside from troubles experienced by crypto lenders such as BlockFi and Celsius, and in addition to U$2 trillion being shed from the sector’s market capitalisation since November 2021, tighter monetary conditions have driven investors to seek refuge in less risky assets.

As one venture capitalist noted:

It’s very easy to be fearful right now, not only in crypto, but generally in the world.

Jared Madfes, partner, Tribe Capital

Madfes suggested that people’s expectations of a further collapse in bitcoin’s price reflected the “inherent fear in the market”.

Crypto Anxiety Pervasive

Interestingly, it wasn’t just notoriously conservative institutional investors who expressed doubts about the industry. Close to a quarter of retail investors described cryptocurrencies as “worthless”, although a similar amount believed they were “the future”:

MLIV Pulse Survey. Source: Bloomberg

One other conspicuous finding was that retail investors were twice as likely to be seen as Bitcoin maximalists. And it’s little wonder that venture capitalists prefer other cryptos over Bitcoin, particularly when one considers the exponential returns available with initial coin offerings (ICOs), premines and discounted tokens.

Kevin O’ Leary, an experienced investor of Shark Tank fame, believes that crypto is yet to see see the bottom as there hasn’t been a “panic event”, typical of most other asset classes:

Wrong or right? Nobody knows, but either way it would be prudent to expect the unexpected.

Categories
Bitcoin Crypto News Hackers

Mt. Gox Exchange Finally To Release 150,000 BTC to Users After 8 Years

The end may finally be in sight for creditors of the infamous Mt. Gox heist. Authorities were only able to recover an estimated 150,000 of the 850,000 stolen BTC. Creditors, forced to HODL through multiple cycles have seen their stash soar in value, and now need to decide whether to take their respective proceeds in Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash or US dollars.

Mt. Gox Recap

Mt. Gox was originally founded in 2006 as an exchange to trade “Magic: The Gathering Online” cards, hence the acronym MTGOX. In 2010, it transformed into a Bitcoin exchange to provide an easy platform for users to buy and sell BTC.

At one stage, it handled over 70 percent of all bitcoin transactions globally, however through a combination of ignorance, naivety and security mismanagement, around 850,000 BTC were stolen between 2011 and 2013, the vast majority belonging to its customers.

According to blockchain analytics firm Glassnode, the Mt. Gox stash represents 0.72 percent of total supply and 1.03 percent of long-term-holder supply:

Mt Gox supply. Source: Glassnode

For a compelling account of the entire saga, crypto analyst Miles Deutscher’s Twitter thread is well worth reading:

The End is Nigh

In October last year, the rehabilitation trustee for Mt. Gox released a formal rehabilitation plan to which 99 percent of creditors agreed. Although planned distribution of the proceeds has been somewhat delayed, an email sent by Mt. Gox trustee Nobuaki Kobayashi indicates that creditors now have an important decision.

According to Kobayashi, “rehabilitation creditors” have the following choices at their disposal:

Extract from Trustee email. MtGox.com

Twitter users joked that Bitcoin Cash was even an option:

Impact on Price Action?

Given that bitcoin is 35 times higher than it was at the time of the hack, some have argued that it would be “realistic” to expect a flood of BTC sold, resulting in further price capitulation. Others have argued the opposite, suggesting that those who bought in early are likely to have had their conviction strengthened over the years, and probably wouldn’t sell into a bear market.

Time will tell how things play out, though as Ark Invest analyst David Puell notes, 2022 has thrown the proverbial kitchen sink at Bitcoin.

If Bitcoin navigates this period as proponents expect, it is likely to emerge stronger and more antifragile on the other end:

Categories
Bitcoin ETFs

World’s First Short BTC ETF Sees Interest Explode 300% in Days

Following its hotly anticipated launch two weeks ago, the Proshares Short Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (BITI) initially got off to a rather lacklustre start. However, according to Arcane Research, interest of late has soared by over 300 percent:

BTC short ETF inflows. Source: Arcane Research

Betting on More Downside?

As bitcoin managed to claw its way above US$20,000 amid ongoing fears of a recession, investors appeared to take a particular liking to BITI, resulting in some US$51 million worth of inflows over the past week.

Speaking to CoinDesk, Pawel Cichowski, the head of dealing at crypto exchange XBO, suggested that market consensus appeared to favour more pain on the horizon:

People who are involved in the market think that the bottom is still to come, so if they can’t make money on the rise, they want to make money on the fall by shorting Bitcoin.

Pawel Cichowski, head of dealing, XBO

Cichowski added that “with signs of a global recession coming up and the bond yield curve inverting, nobody knows for sure where the price of bitcoin will go next. However, based on ProShares statistics, people are preferring to expect the worst”.

Inflows Back into Crypto Mask the Reality

In its latest report, CoinShares reveals that despite a lack of good news, investment flows are returning to crypto products:

Daily crypto inflows. Source: CoinShares

Analysts were however quick to note that despite seeing inflows of US$64 million over the past week, the “headline figures obscure the fact that a significant majority were into short-bitcoin investment products (US$51 million)”.

Addressing the issue of whether increased inflows into BITI offered evidence of renewed negative sentiment, CoinShares argued that it was possibly instead due to “first-time accessibility”, reflected by some US$20 million inflows into bitcoin long products from Canada and Europe (Germany in particular).

Whatever the reality, the figures in question remain a long way off recent record weekly outflows of US$423 million, witnessed shortly after news broke that Celsius was in trouble and the contagion that followed.

As bitcoin continues to trade in the US$17,500 to US$20,000 band, it remains unclear whether the bottom is in. Of course, for those with conviction dollar-cost-averaging over the long term, it’s perfectly irrelevant:

HODLers don’t focus on the price. Source: In Bitcoin We Trust
Categories
Bitcoin Crypto News Hackers Ransomware

Dutch Uni Recovers Double the Ransom it Paid in BTC During 2019

In a compelling display of how bitcoin is unsuitable for criminal activities, Netherlands-based Maastricht University has shared a positive tale of how the bitcoin it paid in ransom in 2019, since tracked and recovered, has appreciated significantly in the interim:

A Profitable Ransom

As outlined by the university, it suffered a ransomware attack in 2019 that prevented more than 25,000 staff and students from accessing critical research data, email, or library resources. The hackers encrypted hundreds of Windows servers and backup systems, denying access to business-critical services pending a ransom payment of €200,000 (US$208,000) in bitcoin.

As reported by Dutch newspaper De Volkskrant, the university agreed to pay the attackers after a week, “partly because personal data was in danger of being lost and students were unable to take an exam or work on their theses”.

After launching an investigation, Dutch police traced a Ukrainian bank account belonging to a known money launderer. Investigators were able to establish that a relatively small amount of the ransom money, some €40,000 (US$41,000) worth of bitcoin, had been paid.

Chain analysis at work, used to identify the hacker. Source: Bitquery

Prosecutors were able to seize the offending account in 2020 and, through chain analysis techniques, were able to trace the remaining bitcoin. While information remains limited on why it took so long to return the funds, it appears as if the tedious wheels of bureaucracy might have worked in the university’s favour.

Since paying the ransom, the €200,000 (US$205,000) worth of bitcoin has more than doubled to €500,000 (US$515,000), even despite bitcoin plummeting some 75 percent below its all-time high.

Needy Students to Benefit from Recovery

Commenting on the windfall, Maastricht University ICT director Michiel Borgers said it would be directed to students in need:

This money will not go to a general fund, but into a fund to help financially strapped students.

Michiel Borgers, director of ICT, Maastricht University

De Volkskrant has reported that the investigation remains ongoing as authorities search for those responsible for the exploit. As crypto crimes soared to new heights in 2021, efforts to combat ransomware attacks have been increasingly ramped up by authorities including the US Federal Bureau of Intelligence, which recently established its crypto crime unit.

Categories
CeFi Crypto News Terra

Contagion Spreads as Crypto Lender ‘Vauld’ Freezes Withdrawals

Crypto lending platforms are increasingly under the microscope and the latest evidence of “tragic contagion” is Singapore-based crypto lending firm Vauld, who just became the latest to suspend all withdrawals, trading and deposits on its platform.

The blowback has been swift and brutal:

Contagion in Market Motion

In a prepared statement, Vauld’s co-founder and CEO Darshan Bathija outlined the reasons for the decision to suspend services:

This is due to a combination of circumstances such as the volatile market conditions, the financial difficulties of our key business partners inevitably affecting us, and the current market climate which has led to a significant amount of customer withdrawals in excess of $197.7m since 12 June 2022 when the decline of the cryptocurrency market was triggered by the collapse of Terraform Labs’ UST stablecoin, Celsius network pausing withdrawals, and Three Arrows Capital defaulting on their loans.

Darshan Bathija, co-founder and CEO, Vauld

Just weeks ago, the firm announced cuts to its staff complement, suggesting it may have foreseen pain on the horizon:

Tellingly, within a matter of days, a suite of other crypto businesses followed suit including BlockFi, Crypto.com, Coinbase and, most recently, Banxa.

Advisory Firm to Assist with Corporate Restructure

Vauld, which raised US$25 million last year, has now enlisted an advisory firm to assist with its corporate restructure, claiming that management is “fully committed” to achieving the best outcome for all stakeholders.

In the interim, the company has made the “difficult decision” to suspend all services and has committed to providing an update to its customers in due course. Many influencers have been called out for promoting Vauld, while others appeared to take a more sanguine approach:

Given the recent market downturn coupled with the drama at Terra, Celsius, BlockFi and Three Arrows, it’s no surprise to see depositors flee for safety. As the ‘Oracle of Omaha’, Warren Buffett, once opined:

It’s only when the tide goes out that you learn who’s been swimming naked.

Warren Buffett