Category: Markets

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Bitcoin Market Analysis Markets The Crypto Den Trading

TradeRoom: Our Weekly Crypto Trades Analysis – Nov 8, 2021

Welcome to this weekly series from the TradeRoom. My name is Dave and I’m the founder of The Crypto Den, an Australian-based crypto trading and education community aiming to give you the knowledge to take your trading game to the next level.

Crypto Market Outlook

Last week the overall Crypto Market Cap (TOTAL) sat steady at the US$2.6 trillion area and this week is still holding strong, currently at US$2.7 trillion. The flow of money into ALTS has shown some serious bullish price action across the board all week with near perfect conditions as a trader.

Bitcoin dominance is still dropping. Over the past seven days it’s dropped from 44% to 42%, while the ALT market added almost US$100 billion (6% growth).

Total Crypto Marketcap
ALT coin Marketcap
BTC Dominance

Looking at BTC, we are seeing a few key points of interest.
First, since last week BTC has been ranging. Despite the BTC.D dropping further, this isn’t a bad thing. Holding steady above US$60,000 and ranging up to US$64,000 shows a bit of consolidation.

After its ATH push, it’s retraced into a golden pocket (61.8% FIB) from its previous level of consolidation, with a series of Lower Highs (LH) and Higher Lows (HL) forming a symmetrical triangle (usually a bullish continuation pattern with a 70% chance of continuing with existing trend).

Our first target in the TradeRoom still sits at US$78,000. As traders we move with the market and change our bias to suit, and at the moment the general consensus is bullish!

BTC/USDT

Something to keep an eye on, however, is the BTC monthly chart. At the moment it’s showing a bit of indecision (Doji Candle) and while there are still three weeks of the month to go, it’s worth keeping in mind. We expect this to change but it’s worth noting.

BTC monthly chart

Last Week’s Performance

SOL/USDT

For the third week in a row, Solana (SOL) has made the top of my list. Why? Because it’s a money-making machine! With another 25% growth in the last week, there just seems to be no stopping it. Painting a bit of a daily Doji candle at the time of writing, however, if BTC does in fact take off I expect SOL won’t be far behind.

Chart I shared in last week’s article
SOL this week!

AXS/USDT

Another trade setup I mentioned in last week’s article is AXS. Since breaking out of its symmetrical triangle, AXS peaked out at 35%, which those of you who leverage trade will know is a significant move, even on a 10x trade.

Last week’s screenshot from a TradeRoom Market Scan
AXS breakout on daily chart

This Week’s Trades

BTC/USD

Let’s go back to BTC. If the bullish sentiment plays out, I’m expecting to see something like this:

Possible BTC target

You can see in its previous run up, BTC peaked at the “future 618” Fib (a common target fib) after retracing 50% of its last push before that. Now, it’s not uncommon for momentum to pick up and only see retraces of 38.2% in a continuation trade. If it follows the same pattern, a target of US$83,000 is likely. Our initial target for BTC is still US$78,000.

MANA/USDT

One of the biggest coins to watch for this week, I think, will be MANA (Decentraland). The momentum is too high to ignore and with all the hype around the metaverse tokens, this has been one nice little performer.

We charted this in the TradeRoom last week and collectively made over 1000% RIO in a matter of hours!

From a technical standpoint, MANA has retraced to the golden pocket (common retrace level based on Fibonacci), bounced off the pocket and the 50 Exponential Moving Average (EMA), and is currently in a descending wedge pattern. This is another bullish continuation pattern we teach in our trading course.

Expect to see something like this play out

It’s important to remember that when trading ALT coins, their price action is heavily dependent on BTC. If BTC takes a bullish path, ALTS will likely follow. If BTC turns bearish, then ALTS will likely dump in price even harder!

If you’d like to become a better trader, you’re invited to join our TradeRoom where we share daily charts and market analysis. In our community we strongly encourage and teach correct risk management strategies to keep our members safe in this new volatile crypto market.

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The Crypto Den was created in 2017 to help the rapidly growing crypto community learn and understand the fundamentals of digital currencies and how to trade them. 

Since then we have taught thousands of members the basics of technical analysis and trading strategies to further progress and perfect their trading abilities.

In the TradeRoom you will be included in a supportive environment which encourages personal growth, education and community support.

It’s a place to share your trading ideas and follow other experienced traders’ feeds to help keep your finger on the pulse of such a volatile market!

Categories
Ethereum Industries Loopring Markets NFTs Tokens

Loopring Token Soars Over 100% on Rumour of GameStop NFT Marketplace Collaboration

GameStop, the American video game, consumer electronics and gaming merchandise retailer, is rumoured to be working with Loopring (LRC), an Ethereum Layer 2 scaling solution, to build an NFT marketplace, causing its native token to make sizeable gains.

As speculation about GameStop’s NFT marketplace increases, Loopring’s LRC token has climbed over 100 percent in the past seven days, following various signs pointing to an unnamed partnership to help develop blockchain technology with the gaming giant.

According to a post on GameStop Due Diligence (GMEdd), a website focused on the corporation, a leak in the Loopring GitHub public repository appears to indicate a possible collaboration with GameStop Corporation (GME) for a non-fungible token (NFT) marketplace. The code posted on GitHib reveals that GameStop NFT is built on EIP-1155, which allows the creation of fungible, non-fungible, and semi-fungible tokens in one single token standard.

Additionally, the amended code in the branch “NFT-DEV” under the GitHub commit titled ‘NFT feature’ makes reference to ‘gameStopMeta’ and an IPFS URL, a well-known distributed system for storing and accessing files, websites, applications and data.

Loopring’s ‘NFT feature’ code reveals several references to GameStop.

Nobody knows for certain what GameStop’s NFT division has been working on. Loopring is keeping secrets as well, with CEO Daniel Wang disclosing that the Ethereum-based technology company is “working with a premium partner who demands they keep quiet”.

Loopring Solving the Gas Problem

According to Loopring’s official website, it boasts the industry’s most secure scaling method, which is independent of external validators, consensus, or crypto-economic assumptions.

High Ethereum gas prices make it difficult for ERC-20 projects to run any microtransaction payments, defeating the idea of using the Ethereum network for GameStop’s primary use cases – forcing it to consider Layer 2 solutions or other blockchains.

Additionally, Loopring announced it will be enabling NFT support, “allowing anyone to mint and trade NFTs instantly and gas-free”, adding that the functionality is being used as the foundation of a new NFT marketplace launching soon.

Loopring Price Skyrockets

Following breadcrumbs picked up by GMEdd, and the progress of the project, the price of Loopring has shot up. Since the beginning of October, Loopring LRC/USD has risen from US$0.36 to $0.58, and is now trading at $1.58, smashing its previous all-time high in a matter of days.

LRC/USDT price: Tradingview
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Bitcoin Crypto Exchange Crypto News Investing Market Analysis Markets

Bitcoin Slips to $58,000 Amid $1 Billion Liquidity Flush

After hitting new all-time highs, a sharp market correction and a US$930 million “liquidity flush” has knocked bitcoin back to US$58,000, according to data from analytics firm Bybt.

Due to a price drop in “digital gold” and the overall crypto market in the past 24 hours, a series of liquidations was triggered across exchanges as traders were unable to meet margin requirements in their leveraged positions.

The total value of liquidations reached more than US$930 million, with 87,135 traders liquidated. The largest single liquidation order happened on Bitmex-ADA, with a value of US$3.85 million.

Total liquidations observed. Source: Bybt

Recent History Repeats

Crypto analyst and investor Justin Bennett took to Twitter to explain to his followers that despite the dip, bitcoin seems to be primed to follow the same pattern as it did in September:

Bennett went on to say that he believes the worst is probably over for the altcoin market, and even if bitcoin sees further price drops, altcoins will likely not be greatly affected. At the time of writing, the price of bitcoin was sitting at US$61,165 according to data from CoinGecko.

Bitcoin Dump or Short-Term Flushout?

Although bitcoin’s price is trending down amid signs of excess leverage and greed in the market, many are wondering whether this is it, or is it just the beginning of a more extensive correction needed to liquidate the high leverage recently exercised by retail investors?

All signs seem to point to the correction being short-lived, with bitcoin having stabilised. If all goes well, we should see a recovery take place, but only once leveraged investors have been flushed out.

William Clemente, lead insights analyst at Blockware Solutions, took to Twitter to share his view:

Just Buy the Dip!

The first US-based Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) has been greeted with mixed emotions. All things aside, this is certainly a massive move in the right direction for Bitcoin and crypto adoption.

Overall, the picture for the bitcoin price is bullish. Over the past five months, about 70 percent of the total supply of bitcoin has not moved, indicating that the majority is held by long-term holders or HODLers.

The market has also seen traces of whales, with Bitcoin addresses with 100 to 1,000 BTC accumulating over 85,700 BTC in a two-week period. Along with an increased demand for bitcoin, a supply squeeze is being created that looks bullish in the long term.

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Blockchain Crypto News Markets NFTs Privacy

Privacy-Centric DeFi Token Secret Soars 90% Amid OpenSea Partnership

The Secret Network has partnered with leading NFT marketplace OpenSea to launch Secret NFTs with a “secret world-renowned artist”, spurring the project’s decentralised finance (DeFi) token up 90 per cent.

According to Secret Network’s official website, the project is “the first blockchain with data privacy by default”, with the aim of protecting users and securing applications for Web3. The blockchain recently announced its new production house called Iconic, a platform for artists, developers and other creatives to create the first NFTs with built-in privacy and access controls.

The initial launch of the partnership will be celebrated by having a world-renowned artist and creator – whose identity remains ‘secret’ for now – auction seven unique NFTs as part of a single collection in November. Interested parties can register for whitelist consideration for these Secret NFTs here.

The initial auction will be followed by a second, larger auction that will be open to the general audience to purchase and mint their new Secret NFTs.

Guy Zyskind, founder and CEO of Enigma, the core developers behind Secret Network, stated that a great deal of time had been spent preparing for this “hero event”. OpenSea evidently shared his enthusiasm:

OpenSea is excited to partner with Secret NFTs to help artists provide a multi-tiered experience for their collectors […] Private NFTs offer a new type of solution to all kinds of creators, and we’re excited to move the ecosystem forward together.

Alexander Bercow, art partnerships manager, OpenSea

According to TradingView, Secret (SCRT) has made a 90 per cent gain since the news of the partnership broke. The token had been trading at around US$4.50 beforehand and doubled to $9 at its peak before stabilising around $8 at the time of writing.

The DeFi industry has been booming this year with the total value locked increasing 10 times since January. Australia currently ranks 12th out of 154 countries in terms of DeFi adoption.

Unseen First Issue Privacy-Based NFTs

The Secret NFTs featured in the auction will be the first of their kind to offer buyers “exclusive content viewable only to the holder – and that has also never been seen previously by anyone but its creator”.

We’ve secured IP for one of the greatest artistic creators to kick off our NFT ecosystem and punctuate our privacy-preserving technology. Secret Network is the first blockchain to support NFT assets that contain both public and private content. Programmable privacy for NFTs is fundamentally about choice – any holder of a Secret NFT can choose to make ownership and/or private metadata completely public for anyone to see.

Guy Zyskind, founder and CEO, Enigma

Traditionally, NFTs don’t allow users to choose if they want to keep the metadata and ownership private. Secret NFTs have changed the status quo by allowing these fields to remain private, whereas with other chains such as Ethereum, Binance Smart Chain and Solana, this data will always be public. An additional measure is allowing users to manage their access control where creators can choose who has full access to their content.

Traditional vs Secret NFTs: Secret network

With Secret NFTs, verifiable ownership of goods and experiences does not have to be public. Secret Network’s process of validation occurs without compromising any private data, including proofs of authenticity and transfers.

To learn more about the Secret Network, see embedded details in the tweet below:

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Bitcoin Crypto News Markets Trading

On-Chain Metrics Paint a Pretty Picture, Bitcoin All-Time High Imminent?

Bitcoin is looking set to reach another all-time high. The momentum in the market has become stronger as investors react positively to the potential impact of the first US Bitcoin futures ETF, which launched on October 19.

Already, bitcoin was trading at US$63,451 shortly after the ETF (symbol: BITO) went live on the New York Stock Exchange, raising 99.02 percent of all bitcoin supply into profit. 

The current state of the Bitcoin market is looking bullish on-chain as well. Several metrics are suggesting the rally is about to kick in, which could take the price to another record level. 

Whales Are Still Buying Bitcoin 

Deep-pocketed bitcoin investors are among those positive about the future price of the leading cryptocurrency, and this is bullish because there won’t be significant selling pressure from them, at least in the meantime.

Whales have been accumulating a huge chunk of bitcoin since last month. On-chain analytics platform Santiment recently reported that the number of whales holding between 100 to 1,000 BTC increased by 1.9 percent (254) over one month. Interestingly, whale activities are just one of the factors contributing to the growth of bitcoin’s price. Active addresses on the BTC network have also risen, which indicates strong network usage. 

Recently, Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards also pointed out that bitcoin’s MVRV z-score had reclaimed 3.0, which usually leads to a notable increase in price. MVRV z-score measures the market value’s relative position to realised value, whereby an increase in the score suggests bitcoin is overvalued while a lower score shows otherwise. 

But LTHs Are Spending

Despite the bullish metrics, there’s still a need to keep a watchful eye on the market given that long-term holders (LTHs) are beginning to spend, according to Glassnode. The LTH Net Position Change is starting to decline, meaning some of those LTHs are starting to realise a profit. 

Notwithstanding, their current position is still positive. On October 14, Crypto News Australia reported that LTHs were HODLing more than 70 percent of all bitcoin in circulation, and their accumulation rate had grown 12.7x.

Historically, Q4 has mostly proven favourable for bitcoin, but it remains to be seen if this quarter can be counted as one. 

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Bitcoin Crypto News Markets

Whales and HODLers Dominate as 70% of Bitcoin Hasn’t Moved in Five Months

Since Bitcoin’s correction from April’s all-time high, most investors have turned strong hands. According to Glassnode, about 70 percent of Bitcoin’s total supply hasn’t moved in the past 155 days (or five months), meaning the majority of BTC supply is held by long-term holders. 

On this note, there should be less selling pressure on bitcoin, given most inventors are positive about the future price. 

HODLers Are Accumulating 12.7x More BTC Than Mined

What’s more interesting is the rate at which long-term holders have been accumulating BTC in recent months. HODLers’ supply reportedly grew from 10.91 million BTC to about 13.3 million BTC within a space of seven months. That is a differential of 2.37 million BTC, which is greater than the 186,000 new Bitcoin mined within that period. 

This signifies that, on average, long-term holders are accumulating 13x BTC than the total amount of BTC mined in a day, hence the drop in BTC balance on all exchanges. Recent data from Glassnode shows all Bitcoin exchange balances at 2,450,952.419 BTC, the lowest level in three years.

Image

What’s Next for Bitcoin?

On-chain metrics are painting a bullish picture for Bitcoin. At the time of writing, BTC was trading at US$57,001 with a market capitalisation of US$1.19 trillion. Judging by the metrics, it’s easy to forecast BTC could break out anytime to US$60,000 and higher as the accumulation wave gets stronger.

Already, there are traces of whales in the market. In two weeks, BTC addresses with 100 to 1,000 BTC accumulated over 85.7k bitcoin, equivalent to US$4.8 billion at today’s price. The appetite for bitcoin is getting stronger, and it’s creating a supply squeeze that is bullish in the long term. 

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Bitcoin Crypto News Cryptocurrencies Investing Markets

Legendary Billionaire Investor Finally Buys BTC, Admitting It Has ‘Crossed the Chasm to Mainstream’

“It’s more than an inflation hedge” – this is how Soros Fund CEO Dawn Fitzpatrick recently referred to bitcoin, adding that the cryptocurrency market has “crossed the chasm to mainstream”.

In a recent interview with Bloomberg, Fitzpatrick – who’s also the chief investment officer of Soros Fund, a private US investment firm with over US$6 billion in assets under management – discussed the current state of the stock market, Chinese companies in the US, and bitcoin, stating that her company is exploring crypto beyond the inflation hedge narrative.

Bitcoin Has Surpassed the ‘Inflation Hedge’ Narrative

While other institutional investors and billionaires have satanised bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general – among them Warren Buffet’s right hand man, Charlie Munger – Fitzpatrick points to how the crypto market now has over US$2.3 trillion in market cap and 220 million users globally. To reinforce her point, the number of active crypto addresses reached the 50 million mark two weeks ago.

A ‘Market Crash’ is Getting Closer

During the Bloomberg interview, Fitzpatrick was asked what her fund’s current market strategy was against hyperinflation. She said that a market crash was nearing, and that high inflation combined with low interest rates have pushed the fund to stockpile cash by borrowing against various securities.

I think we’ve all been surprised at how long [high inflation] feels like it’s going to last now.

Dawn Fitzpatrick, CEO and CIO, Soros Fund

Fitzpatrick’s statements echo the words of billionaire Marc Lasry when in June he lamented not buying enough bitcoin. “As more and more people start using bitcoin, it’s going to keep going up. It’s happened a lot quicker than I thought it would. I should have bought a lot more. That was my mistake,” Lasry said.

Other billionaire investors such as the outspoken Chamath Palihapitiya consider that bitcoin has “effectively replaced gold”, as he said earlier this month, and would continue to do so as the cryptocurrency market cap grows.

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Bitcoin Market Analysis Markets Trading

Q4 Looks Bullish for Bitcoin, Up 34% in a Week

Over the past week alone, bitcoin is up over 34 percent, surging past the US$55,000 mark. After a lacklustre September (jokingly referred to as “Downtember”), October (or “Uptober”) has kicked off with a bang suggesting we may be in for an exciting Q4.

2021 – A Topsy Turvy Year

Everyone knows Bitcoin is volatile, but 2021 has been noticeably so, particularly in light of the endless attacks on the network. These ranged from China banning crypto (again) and shutting down miners to Elon Musk triggered sell-offs in the wake of his “environmental concerns“.

Following a strong Q1 providing a return of 102 percent, Q2 proved to be bitcoin’s worst in over eight years, delivering 40 percent. Q3 brought bitcoin back into positive territory, with the digital asset recording a 24 percent return over the period. After reaching an important technical milestone last month (the “Golden Cross“), there are signs that Q4 may prove to be bitcoin’s best in 2021.

BTC monthly returns. Source: CryptoMichNL (Twitter)

Three Reasons Q4 Is Looking Good

Reason One: HODLers Are Accumulating

One of the main signals of a bull market is accumulation by long-term holders (HODLers). According to Glassnode, HODLers have added 2.35 million BTC to their stacks since supply bottomed out in March. Since then only 180,000 BTC have been mined, meaning HODLers accumulated 13x more coins than were produced via fresh issuance over the past seven months.

HODLer accumlation. Source: Glassnode.

Reason Two: On-Chain Volume Dominated By Large Transactions

According to Glassnode:

The rising dominance of large transaction sizes hints to the increased maturation of Bitcoin as a macro-scale asset with increasing interest from high-net-worth individuals, trading desks, and institutions.

Glassnode
Volume dominance. Source: Glassnode

Reason Three: SOPR is Flashing End of a Bear/Start of a Bull Market

In Glassnode speak, the LTH-SOPR (long-term holder, spent output profit ratio) refers to the degree of profit realised on chain. Glassnode notes that as a longer-term cyclical metric, the “LTH-SOPR usually trades in this range during late stage bear markets, and early stage bull markets. This is a result of lengthy sideways price action which compresses profit multiples, even for longer-term investors.”

7-day moving average SOPR. Source: Glassnode

Outside of on-chain analysis, the futures and options markets are currently showing that traders are no longer in fear mode and have shifted bullish.

Despite having the validity of his model challenged this year, Plan B remains confident of his end-of-year US$135,000 bitcoin prediction made in late June:

Just last week, derivative markets gave bitcoin a 3.2 percent chance of reaching US$100,000 before year end.

Between technical, fundamental, on-chain and stock-to-flow analysis, time alone will tell which is more accurate in determining how bitcoin performs in Q4. Chances are bitcoin will do what bitcoin does – whatever it wants.

Categories
Bitcoin Crypto News Markets

Probability of Bitcoin Hitting $100k by the End of the Year is 3.2%

At the current price, bitcoin (BTC) is less likely to exceed the long-sought US$100,000 price mark this year than it was about seven months ago. 

According to options-based data from Skew, the probability of bitcoin reaching the mark in December has declined to 3.2 percent, while for October, the likelihood is around 0 to 1 percent. There is a slightly higher probability of bitcoin exceeding that price level by next year. 

This decline, as per the data, is a result of poor pricing in the bitcoin options market. Many options traders seem to be uncertain about the current market condition, probably because of the sudden correction in price to the lows of US$40,000 amid the crackdown in China. During the bull market earlier this year, traders were seen betting big on the rally, which raised the probability to over 20 percent. Back then, in March, bitcoin was priced around US$55,000.

Crypto Twitter Still Anticipates $100k Bitcoin Price in 2021 

Regardless of the odds, many still believe bitcoin could reach US$100,000 later this year. A fortnight ago, analyst Benjamin Cowen conducted a poll to that effect and about 52 percent of the 12,343 respondents agreed. 

In Australia, many investors have predicted that bitcoin will cross A$100,000 (US$72,310) by the end of the year. 

Former hedge fund manager and economist Raoul Pal recently stated that bitcoin could reach as high as US$300,000 given it “usually goes 5x to 10x within three months”. Pal added that the rally could be driven by the introduction of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the US or more dollar printing by the FEDs.

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Crypto News Markets Regulation Trading

Crypto Twitter Slams Fed Hypocrisy as Two Members Resign Amid Insider Trading Allegations

Earlier this week, two of the 12 regional Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) presidents resigned following disclosures about insider trading activity in 2020, a year characterised by a waft of sweeping economic policies driven largely by the Fed. The irony of the situation was not lost on crypto Twitter.

Insider Trading Allegations

Those claiming insider trading argue that both officials helped implement policies which which they are likely to have known would benefit themselves.

In an official press release, the Boston Federal Reserve noted that president, Eric Rosengren, would retire. Interestingly, it cited health reasons. Hours later, the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank issued a notice saying that its president, Robert Kaplan, was leaving to “eliminate any distraction” relating to his personal investment activities.

As per official disclosures, both officials traded in securities while determining the nation’s monetary policy. Rosengren was active in the real estate sector which raised suspicion, particularly after some of his comments relating to the overheated housing market. Kaplan it appears was more brazen, making multiple million-dollar trades in individual equities in 2020 including Apple, Amazon and Delta Airlines.

Sven Henrich, an outspoken market commentator, pulled no punches:

Crypto Twitter Responds

If you are tuned into the macroeconomic environment, you’ll know that crypto is often on the receiving end of persistent fear, uncertainty and doubt (FUD) promulgated by those in power who stand to lose the most from its global adoption. The response to this scandal within the Fed was therefore predictable:

Reddit users had similar feelings on the matter, mostly entirely predictable:

Crypto users would probably be the first to admit that insider trading is not limited to traditional markets. Recently, OpenSea confirmed that a product manager was frontrunning NFT launches to flip them for a tidy profit.

But still, for the average person, it is likely far more concerning that those in charge of a nation’s monetary policy are front running retail investors. Events like these erode what little trust is left in traditional institutions such as the Fed. It’s no wonder that so many have turned to crypto, particularly when faced with record inflation despite persistent claims that it is “transient”.