Categories
Australia Crypto News Regulation

Australian Senate Committee Releases 12-Point Crypto Reform Plan

After months of inquiries and input from stakeholders across the board, the Select Committee on Australia as a Technology and Financial Centre (Committee) has finalised its long-awaited report, containing 12 recommendations that, if implemented, will significantly alter the regulation of Australia’s growing digital asset ecosystem.

Senator Andrew Bragg, chair of the ATFC committee. Source: Realestate.com.au

Swift Action Parallels Crypto Adoption Rate

From the outset, one can’t help but be impressed by the comparable speed at which policymakers have grappled with an emergent, complex and relatively unfamiliar sector. It was only seven months ago that the deep dive really began. On top of that, over 100 submissions were received, illustrative of an engaging and proactive industry seeking regulatory certainty. No doubt, the committee’s swift action can at least partially be attributed to the rapid growth of crypto adoption within Australia, particularly over the past 12 months.

The committee grappled with a host of diverse issues within the cryptosphere, including blockchain, tokens, coins, DeFi, staking and DAOs (decentralised autonomous organisations), in addition to thorny matters such as licensing requirements, tax issues and debanking of crypto businesses.

Listening in on a few hearings, it became evident that the committee’s focus was aimed at striking a balance between consumer protection, regulatory clarity and otherwise providing space for the sector to thrive.

This [the recommendations] provides a very clear agenda for Australian leadership on digital assets, in terms of protecting consumers and boosting investment. The market is asking for regulation, and we are responding while trying to avoid trampling on innovation.

Senator Andrew Bragg, chair of the committee

12 Recommendations Made

The committee’s 167-page report offered 12 recommendations which, if adopted by government, will rank Australia among the more progressive and developed digital asset regulatory regimes, alongside countries such as Singapore.

The 12 recommendations are:

  1. Establish a market licensing regime for digital currency exchanges, including capital adequacy, auditing and responsible person tests under the Treasury portfolio.

2. Establish a custody or depository regime for digital assets with minimum standards under the Treasury portfolio.

3. Conduct a ‘token mapping’ exercise, through Treasury and with input from other regulators and experts, to determine the best way to characterise the various types of digital asset tokens in Australia.

4. Establish a new decentralised autonomous organisation company structure.

5. Clarify anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing regulations to ensure they are fit for purpose and do not undermine innovation.

6. Amend the capital gains tax regime so that digital asset transactions create a CGT event only when they genuinely result in a clearly definable capital gain or loss.

7. Amend relevant legislation so that businesses undertaking digital asset ‘mining’ and related activities in Australia receive a company tax discount of 10 percent if they source their own renewable energy for these activities.

8. Have Treasury lead a policy review of the viability of a retail central bank digital currency in Australia.

9. Ensure the Council of Financial Regulators implements a scheme to address the due diligence requirements of banks by June next year, in line with recommendations from the 2019 ACCC inquiry into the supply of foreign currency conversion services.

10. Develop a clear process for businesses that have been debanked. This should be anchored around the Australian Financial Complaints Authority, which services licensed entities.

11. Ask the Reserve Bank of Australia to develop common access requirements for the new payments platform in accordance with the report by Scott Farrell, to reduce the reliance of payments businesses on the major banks for the provision of banking services.

12. Establish a global markets incentive to replace the offshore banking unit regime by the end of next year.

Naturally, the devil is in the detail as to precisely how these recommendations are reflected in the legislation. One’s only hope is that legislators spend sufficient time engaging with the issues to give Australia the best prospect of creating a dynamic and thriving local crypto industry.

Reactions Vary Within Crypto Community

Overall, the sentiment from the crypto community has been mixed, which is to be expected, given that so many diverse participants provided input into the process.

Many have echoed the sentiments of CoinJar, who praised the committee’s approach:

We applaud the ATFC for the forward-thinking approach they’ve taken with this proposed regulatory framework. CoinJar is committed to offering people a safe and positive experience when it comes to investing in cryptocurrency and we believe that effective regulation is the best way to achieve this.

Asher Tan, CEO, CoinJar

However, some said the report lacked sufficient detail, while others argued that it was doubtful whether government would actually implement the recommendations. Many are unquestionably also disappointed by the absence of “safe harbour protections“, which would otherwise have blocked damaging retroactive legislation.

Whatever your view, Australia seems to have taken a step towards greater regulatory clarity, something almost all market participants would welcome with open arms.

Categories
Bitcoin Crypto News Regulation

Mixed Reactions as SEC Approves Bitcoin Futures ETF

The much-anticipated first US-based Bitcoin exchange traded fund (ETF) has arrived with a mix of both excitement and controversy. Pending no last-minute regulatory interference, the ProShares bitcoin futures-based ETF is expected to go live later today.

While some have celebrated the news, others are more sceptical:

Futures, Not Spot ETF

Last Friday, ProShares filed a post-effective amended prospectus which stated its intentions to list the ETF on Monday, October 18, under ticker $BITO. It is now confirmed that it will instead formally list later today on the New York Stock Exchange. Interestingly, when listed, it won’t be due to formal approval from the SEC but rather, due to the SEC’s lack of objection, within 75 days of the initial application.

Critically, however, $BITO will not provide direct exposure to the bitcoin spot price:

The Fund seeks to provide capital appreciation primarily through managed exposure to bitcoin futures contracts. The Fund does not invest directly in bitcoin.

ProShares, SEC statement

Ordinarily when you buy a regular ETF, the value of the shares is based entirely on the price of the underlying asset. However, when you buy a futures ETF, a host of other factors could lead to the price of the shares diverging from the asset. This creates opportunities such as the “contango trade”, where professional traders are able to exploit opportunities between the futures and spot prices.

Who Benefits From a Futures-Based Bitcoin ETF?

Since the Winklevoss twins’ bitcoin ETF was first rejected in 2013, the narrative has always been that, when granted, a bitcoin ETF would open the door to a host of new participants who are otherwise not interested in dealing with the complexities of self-custody. An ETF, the argument goes, would enable institutional and retail investors to gain exposure to bitcoin in a simple, trusted and familiar format.

The futures-based ETF doesn’t do quite that, but it is no doubt a step in the right direction. While it provides bitcoin with increased recognition and greater credibility, some have suggested that the futures-based ETF will ultimately act as a bridge for others to launch a spot market-based ETF. Despite “broadening the bitcoin tent”, the futures-based ETF has met with criticism from some unlikely sources.

Raoul Pal, a former Goldman Sachs hedge fund manager, appeared to be defending retail investors in his scathing take on Twitter, saying that hedge funds would “make a fortune out of this”:

This vehicle means that the arbitrager takes their slice, the ETF provider takes their slice, the lawyer who set up the fund takes their slice, the administrator, the auditor … I mean, everybody is taking a slice out of your pie.

Raoul Pal, Real Vision

Others, “toxic maxis” such as Bitcoin Tina, were less charitable in their assessment:

Despite Canada and Brazil both having bitcoin ETFs, a US-based ETF with direct exposure to bitcoin’s price remains outstanding. While approval is expected in 2021, the overall sense of regulatory hostility towards the crypto sector suggests that it isn’t necessarily a sure thing.

Categories
Bitcoin Bitcoin Mining Crypto News

Canadian City Becomes First to be Heated Using Bitcoin Mining

As the narrative around Bitcoin’s nuanced relationship with energy gradually shifts, the City of North Vancouver has announced a partnership with its local energy provider to achieve a world first – using bitcoin mining to heat the city.

Using Bitcoin Mining to Heat the City

The City of North Vancouver is on a self-described “decarbonisation journey”, which among other things includes the integration of new technologies designed to reduce its environmental footprint. In that vein, the Canadian municipality’s wholly owned energy company, Lonsdale Energy Corporation (LEC), has just formed a partnership with a cleantech bitcoin miner, MintGreen.

The complex issue of climate change requires innovative solutions, and LEC, with the City of North Vancouver, is showing tremendous leadership in environmental stewardship.

Colin Sullivan, CEO, MintGreen

As is well documented, mining bitcoin consumes significant amounts of energy to maintain the security of the proof-of-work protocol. In doing so, a huge amount of waste in the form of excess heat is produced. MintGreen has already been leading the way in reusing such heat by selling it on to a local brewery and a sea salt distillery. The partnership with LEC is simply an extension of what it has already been doing, albeit on an industrial scale.

Through the partnership, MintGreen will provide heat to North Vancouver’s energy system using its new “Digital Boilers” that recover more than 96 percent of the electricity used for bitcoin mining. Since MintGreen runs at full capacity all year round, its proprietary technology has the capacity to offer a reliable and clean heating baseload.

It is estimated that over the 12-year contract, MintGreen’s “Digital Boilers” will prevent 20,000 tonnes of greenhouse gases from entering the atmosphere per megawatt, compared to natural gas.

Being partners with MintGreen on this project is very exciting for LEC in that it’s an innovative and cost-competitive project, and it reinforces the journey LEC is on to support the City’s ambitious greenhouse gas reduction targets.

Karsten Veng, CEO, LEC

In an interview with Bitcoin Magazine, MintGreen chief executive Colin Sullivan noted that there wasn’t any way bitcoin mining could be greener given that 97 percent of its energy mix is hydroelectric. “Using that energy twice both eliminates waste and makes this project one of the greenest in the space,” Sullivan said.

Bitcoin Mining – Becoming Less Controversial

Thankfully we’re starting to see fewer ill-informed and recycled arguments along the lines of “Bitcoin consumes as much energy as country X”. The obvious response has always been, compared to what, and who gets to decide what constitutes an appropriate use of energy?

The reality appears to be slowly dawning on critics that bitcoin mining is neither inherently good nor bad for the environment. Mining is a function of incentives and will take place wherever cheap, reliable energy exists.

Most often it occurs where you have wasted or stranded energy (which is innately cheap) as seen in Texas, where natural gas flares are being used to mine bitcoin. In other instances, it can be 100 percent sustainable, such as in El Salvador’s infamous geothermal bitcoin mining project.

Categories
Australia Crypto News Investing

Crypto Equities ETF Could Be Trading on ASX in Weeks

According to a recent announcement, Australian investors may soon be able to gain exposure to crypto through a newly created exchange traded fund (ETF). While this is exciting news, it isn’t quite what investors had expected.

Crypto Equities ETF, Not a Crypto ETF

Rather than providing exposure directly to crypto assets, the soon-to-be-released BetaShares Crypto Innovators ETF (ticker symbol CRYP) will provide “investors with exposure to a portfolio of global companies at the forefront of the rapidly emerging crypto economy”.

According to Betashares:

CRYP’s index is designed to capture the full breadth of the crypto ecosystem, by providing exposure to pure-play crypto companies, those whose balance sheets are held at least 75 percent in crypto-assets, and diversified companies with crypto-focused business lines.

Betashares announcement

The current index constituents include NASDAQ-listed Coinbase (COIN), Bitcoin mining company Riot Blockchain (RIOT) and, of course, Michael Saylor’s business intelligence firm MicroStrategy (MSTR).

When Will the Australian Crypto ETF Arrive?

The short answer is, it remains unclear. While countries like Canada and Brazil have crypto ETFs, both the US and Australia have been lagging behind.

As Crypto News Australia reported earlier this year, an Australian ETF is expected to be approved by year’s end. If approved, the ASX has said it would be limited to blue-chip digital assets, meaning that memecoins such as DOGE will certainly be excluded.

In the US, there are close to 30 crypto ETFs awaiting approval and several are expected to be given the tick within the next 60 days. This has left market commentators speculating as to whether such approval has been priced in, or whether it’s just another example of “buy the news, sell the rumour”.

Categories
Bitcoin Crypto News Lightning Network

Lightning Network Growth Goes Parabolic, Up 122% in Past Month

A recent report by Arcane Research suggests that Bitcoin’s layer two micropayments rail, the Lightning Network, is hitting an inflection point and is at the cusp of bringing Bitcoin to billions by solving real world problems. Between August and September, personal transfers and merchant payments went up 122 percent.

Lightning payments and personal transfers from wallet users. Source: Arcane Research

Instantaneous P2P Bitcoin Payments

The Lightning Network is a layer-2 solution built on top of Bitcoin designed to overcome the intentional design limitations of the Bitcoin mainnet. Bitcoin prioritises decentralisation and security over speed, and Lightning is the solution that enables bitcoin micropayments at near-instantaneous speed. In some ways, it can be likened to Visa, which is the centralised, high-speed payment rail sitting on top of the traditional banking sector.

Visa Transactions per Second vs Bitcoin on-chain Transactions per Second vs Lightning Network. Source: Visa and Arcane Research

Lightning Soars in 2021

Public statistics such as total channel capacity and the number of nodes show that the Lightning Network is growing rapidly.

Lightning Network: Public BTC Capacity 2018 – 2021. Source: Arcane Research

In particular, growth in 2021 has been exceptional.

According to Arcane Research, much of the recent network growth can be attributed to bitcoin being rolled out as legal tender in El Salvador, in addition to Twitter launching its bitcoin tips functionality.

Future Possibilities

Looking forward, Arcane Research highlighted how Lightning could be used to “stream money” and revolutionise three main sectors – gaming, video and audio.

The possibility of streaming money can disrupt the business models we know today. Why shouldn’t you be able to pay per minute when you listen to songs on Spotify or per second when you watch a movie on Netflix? Why should you give away your credit card details to a content service if you could pay directly from your Lightning wallet without giving away any information about yourself?

Arcane Research

Aside from the benefits of being cheaper, offering greater privacy and less reliance on third parties, the market potential is enormous, as illustrated in the image below:

Source: Arcane Research

Conservative modelling based on the figures above suggests there could be upwards of 700 million users on the Lightning Network by 2030.

Source: Arcane Research

 

We now use the conservative estimate of one hour used per day on these services and that, on average, 25 percent of this time is spent on services with Lightning payments. With streaming of Lightning payments through these services, we assume one microtransaction per second. Our estimate then equals no less than 364 trillion Lightning transactions per year.

Arcane Research

If these figures prove to be correct, by 2030 there may be as many as one trillion micropayments a day on the Lightning Network. No doubt, unexpected use cases are likely to arise between now and then, suggesting that one shouldn’t overly rely on these projections. Still, the technology and possibilities are exciting enough to warrant speculation.

Categories
Bitcoin Bitcoin Mining Crypto News

Wasted Natural Gas Flares: An Opportunity for Bitcoin?

Bitcoin miners are incentivised to find cheap and reliable sources of energy. The energy mix varies, but often it is “stranded” or intermittent. Either way, critics tend to draw the conclusion that Bitcoin is “not eco-friendly”.

But what if there was a way to mine bitcoin using energy that would otherwise be wasted? It’s already happening.

Natural gas flare. Source: Greenbiz

Texas Leading the Way

In a discussion panel held on October 8 at the Texas Blockchain Summit, US Senator Ted Cruz displayed a surprising level of understanding of Bitcoin mining energy dynamics and how flared natural gas could be used to mine bitcoin.

The idea is simple enough. Rather than burning it, natural gas flares can (and are) being used to mine bitcoin. In addition to offering a new revenue stream for natural gas energy providers, it also serves to reduce the company’s overall environmental impact.

It’s [the natural gas] being wasted because there is no transmission equipment to get that natural gas where it could be used the way natural gas would ordinarily be employed … Part of the beauty of that [mining bitcoin] is the instant you’re doing it you’re helping the environment enormously, because rather than flaring the natural gas you’re putting it to productive use.

Senator Ted Cruz

Speaking in relation to wasted flared gas, Cruz noted that over half was being burned in the western part of his home state, Texas. This, he suggested, was a boon to the energy industry, rather than a burden:

A lot of the discussion around Bitcoin views Bitcoin as a consumer of energy … The perspective I’m suggesting is very much the reverse, which is as a way to strengthen our energy infrastructure.

Senator Ted Cruz

Nic Carter provided a concise summary of the former Republican presidential candidate’s perspective:

Cruz expressed his belief that the US, but especially Texas, ought to be using natural gas to mine bitcoin, rather than flaring it into the atmosphere.

On the back of persistent and often loud ESG (environment and social governance) concerns, the bitcoin mining industry is gradually shifting towards a more eco-friendly energy mix.

Beyond natural gas flaring, we’ve seen countries like El Salvador invest in mining bitcoin using geothermal energy and, just last month, Australian bank Macquarie announced a deal to partner with Blockstream to establish solar-powered bitcoin mining facilities.

Chinese domination of Bitcoin’s hashrate was long regarded as an existential threat to the network. But with China’s most recent and perhaps most serious ban, that threat has dissipated. ESG remains the primary concern for mainstream institutional adoption. Those arguments are, however, gradually becoming weaker.

Categories
CBDCs Crypto News

Snowden Claims CBDCs ‘Deny People Ownership of Their Money’

Edward Snowden, a former consultant to the US National Security Agency (NSA) and exiled privacy advocate, is well known for his stance against government surveillance. He recently suggested that China banning Bitcoin was a good thing, and this past week wrote that CBDCs are not, “as Wikipedia might tell you, a digital dollar”.

CBDCs – It Isn’t What They Tell You It Is

Snowden is unambiguous in his view that CBDCs, as advertised, are not what they appear to be. They are not, he argues, a “digital dollar”, nor are they an example of a “state-level embrace of cryptocurrency”.

Instead, a CBDC is something closer to being a perversion of cryptocurrencyor at least of the founding principles and protocols of cryptocurrency – a cryptofascist currency, an evil twin entered into the ledgers on Opposite Day, expressly designed to deny its users the basic ownership of their money and to install the State at the mediating centre of every transaction. 

Edward Snowden

He jokingly refers to the US dollar as a “napkin” and says that “once that napkin is securely stowed away in your purse – or murse – the bank no longer gets to decide, or even know, how and where you use it”. This of course stands in stark contrast to a CBDC, where the state intermediates or “imposes itself in the middle of every last transaction”.

Money cannot exist without the knowledge of a central bank. Source: Substack

Banks Are Threatened by Crypto

Snowden recognises that cryptocurrencies, due to their decentralised nature, are “regarded by both central and commercial banks as dangerous disintermediators; precisely because they’ve been designed to ensure equal protection for all users, with no special privileges extended to the State”.

These upstart crypto-competitors represent an epochal disruption, promising the possibility of storing and moving verifiable value independent of State approval, and so placing their users beyond the reach of Rome.

Edward Snowden

CBDC proponents argue that it will make everyday transactions safer (by removing counterparty risk), and easier to tax (by rendering it impossible to hide money from the government). However, Snowden is deeply sceptical, suggesting it is merely evidence of an ever-encroaching surveillance state.

Opposition to such free trade [crypto] is all-too-often concealed beneath a veneer of paternalistic concern, with the State claiming that in the absence of its own loving intermediation, the market will inevitably devolve into unlawful gambling dens and fleshpots rife with tax fraud, drug deals, and gun-running.

Edward Snowden

It’s Closer Than You Think

If the idea of governments intermediating every single transaction sounds dystopian but something for your future self to be concerned about, be warned – it’s already here.

Last week, the IMF confirmed that more than 110 nations are currently involved in developing or experimenting with CBDCs. These include countries such as Australia and New Zealand. Unsurprisingly, China leads the pack and has confirmed it is embracing smart contracts in its CBDC – no doubt this will be integrated into its social credit system.

Even critics would acknowledge that CBDCs have practical benefits. That isn’t really the question that matters. Instead, we should be asking whether (and how) CBDCs are able to operate in a manner that is consistent within a Western liberal democratic framework premised on human rights.

Categories
Crypto News Insurance Stablecoins Tether

US Considering $250k Deposit Insurance for Stablecoin Holders

One of the obvious downsides to participating in the stablecoin market is that there isn’t any deposit insurance for holders. No one is going to bail you out if the custodian goes belly up. However, that may soon change, according to a report suggesting the US government is considering deposit insurance for stablecoin holders.

FDIC Insurance May Apply to Stablecoins

The FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation) is an independent agency of the US government that protects against losses if an insured bank fails, up to maximum of US$250,000. Australia has a similar mechanism in place known as the Financial Claims Scheme (FCS), which provides account holders with protection against losses of up to A$250,000.

A number of undisclosed sources close to the FDIC have suggested that stablecoins may indeed be eligible for coverage.

Stablecoins, which are supposed to be redeemable on a 1:1 basis for cash, have been under regulatory scrutiny of late, largely due to the lack of transparency in their reserves composition. While they enjoy the advantage of instant, final settlement, stablecoins are not insured by the government against losses.

Tether revealed in May that only 3.87 percent of its reserves were cash and that over 65 percent was commercial paper. Last month, it asked a court to block the release of its latest reserves, citing “harm to its competitive position”. Circle, the company behind USDC, revealed earlier this year that over 60 percent of reserves were in cash, but in August said it would be moving all of its reserves across to cash and US treasury bonds.

Not Straightforward

A former FDIC lawyer familiar with the inner workings of the organisation notes that:

The FDIC is probably looking at whether stablecoins can count as deposits or whether someone’s ownership of a stablecoin is a deposit at the stablecoin issuer.

Todd Phillips, director of financial regulation and corporate governance, Center for American Progress

Phillips noted that one challenge would be keeping track of who could be insured: “One thing to remember is that each person has insurance of only up to $250,000 … so, the stablecoin issuer would need to keep track of who is the current holder of their stablecoin and how many they own.”

Despite the challenges, Phillips recognised that FDIC insured stablecoins would be a tremendous boost to consumer confidence and trust in the sector.

Just as how the FDIC’s logo on a bank’s website allows savers to be confident that the bank is safe, insurance of particular stablecoins and permission to use the FDIC logo would provide clarity about which stablecoins, up to the insurance limit, will not lose value.

Todd Phillips

Looking into the future, one Twitter commentator had a particularly insightful take on the matter:

Much of crypto’s “wild west” reputation stems from the lack of consumer protection available. Users are often told, quite rightly, to DYOR (do your own research). If, however, the crypto industry is ultimately wanting to “broaden the tent”, FDIC insurance for stablecoins may just be a big step in the right direction.

Categories
Bitcoin Crypto News Trading

Bitcoin Supply Squeeze Results in 5-Month High, Back to a $1 Trillion Asset

After bitcoin languished behind the alts for what might have felt like an eternity, the winds appear to have shifted favourably towards the king of crypto as it soared past US$55,000, reaching a five-month high and reclaiming its status as a US$1 trillion asset.

Supply Squeeze At All-Time High

Based on Glassnode data, the current bitcoin balance on exchanges is at its lowest level since January 2018.

Bitcoin percent on exchanges. Source: Glassnode

In addition, the three-month HODL supply is at an all-time high. Over 85.25 percent of coins have not moved in three months. This is typically a bullish signal as strong hands continue to accumulate on the expectation of further gains.

Three-month supply. Source: Glassnode

Who is Driving the Supply Squeeze?

According to South Korea-based blockchain data firm CryptoQuant, whales purchased US$1.6 billion worth of bitcoin on the spot market:

Crypto analytics firm Santiment noted that October 6 was the single largest day of bitcoin accumulation by whales in over two years:

The firm highlighted the positive momentum in the market, commenting:

#Bitcoin dominance has been on a major rise the past couple days, and $54.6k has been breached for the first time since May 12. Our NVT Token Circulation model is indicating October is the first month we’re seeing a bullish divergence since February.

Santiment

As the “digital gold thesis” continues to gain momentum, signals are in that Q4 may be bitcoin’s best performing quarter in 2021.

There are a few indicators suggesting that a range of new participants are likely to enter the fray in this last quarter. As Raoul Pal noted on Anthony Pompliano’s The Best Business Show:

So who is the next big buyer of bitcoin? Well, it’s pretty clear to me. It is the ongoing institutions … and secondly it is the coming ETF … I have a very strong feeling it comes over the next October, November, December period. And finally, we’re starting to see some noise from the sovereign wealth funds…

Raoul Pal, The Best Business Show podcast

With the whales goggling up supply, what are the plebs left to do? Bitcoiners would tell you to simply stack sats.

Looking at the value of $US1 in sats, if you’re looking to preserve purchasing power, stacking sats would appear to be the rational thing to do.

$1 valued in sats. Source: Dr Jeff Ross
Categories
Bitcoin Market Analysis Markets Trading

Q4 Looks Bullish for Bitcoin, Up 34% in a Week

Over the past week alone, bitcoin is up over 34 percent, surging past the US$55,000 mark. After a lacklustre September (jokingly referred to as “Downtember”), October (or “Uptober”) has kicked off with a bang suggesting we may be in for an exciting Q4.

2021 – A Topsy Turvy Year

Everyone knows Bitcoin is volatile, but 2021 has been noticeably so, particularly in light of the endless attacks on the network. These ranged from China banning crypto (again) and shutting down miners to Elon Musk triggered sell-offs in the wake of his “environmental concerns“.

Following a strong Q1 providing a return of 102 percent, Q2 proved to be bitcoin’s worst in over eight years, delivering 40 percent. Q3 brought bitcoin back into positive territory, with the digital asset recording a 24 percent return over the period. After reaching an important technical milestone last month (the “Golden Cross“), there are signs that Q4 may prove to be bitcoin’s best in 2021.

BTC monthly returns. Source: CryptoMichNL (Twitter)

Three Reasons Q4 Is Looking Good

Reason One: HODLers Are Accumulating

One of the main signals of a bull market is accumulation by long-term holders (HODLers). According to Glassnode, HODLers have added 2.35 million BTC to their stacks since supply bottomed out in March. Since then only 180,000 BTC have been mined, meaning HODLers accumulated 13x more coins than were produced via fresh issuance over the past seven months.

HODLer accumlation. Source: Glassnode.

Reason Two: On-Chain Volume Dominated By Large Transactions

According to Glassnode:

The rising dominance of large transaction sizes hints to the increased maturation of Bitcoin as a macro-scale asset with increasing interest from high-net-worth individuals, trading desks, and institutions.

Glassnode
Volume dominance. Source: Glassnode

Reason Three: SOPR is Flashing End of a Bear/Start of a Bull Market

In Glassnode speak, the LTH-SOPR (long-term holder, spent output profit ratio) refers to the degree of profit realised on chain. Glassnode notes that as a longer-term cyclical metric, the “LTH-SOPR usually trades in this range during late stage bear markets, and early stage bull markets. This is a result of lengthy sideways price action which compresses profit multiples, even for longer-term investors.”

7-day moving average SOPR. Source: Glassnode

Outside of on-chain analysis, the futures and options markets are currently showing that traders are no longer in fear mode and have shifted bullish.

Despite having the validity of his model challenged this year, Plan B remains confident of his end-of-year US$135,000 bitcoin prediction made in late June:

Just last week, derivative markets gave bitcoin a 3.2 percent chance of reaching US$100,000 before year end.

Between technical, fundamental, on-chain and stock-to-flow analysis, time alone will tell which is more accurate in determining how bitcoin performs in Q4. Chances are bitcoin will do what bitcoin does – whatever it wants.