Category: The Crypto Den

TradeRoom: Our Weekly Crypto Trades Analysis – Jun 28, 2022

Post author By David Haslop
Post date June 29, 2022

Welcome to this weekly series from the TradeRoom. My name is Dave and I’m the founder of The Crypto Den, an Australian-based crypto trading and education community aiming to give you the knowledge to take your trading game to the next level.

Crypto Market Outlook

The total crypto cap doesn’t look very strong, hovering around US$900 billion, which is 70% down from its peak in November last year. It’s now been two weeks since we dropped below the US$1 trillion mark and I’m seeing no sign of strength yet. I anticipate a drop to around US$750 billion this week, which will bring the crypto market to its knees.

My target for the BTC bear flag I’ve been writing about for months is still around the US$12,000 zone. It will likely be dragged out a little this week with perhaps even a fake out or SFP to the upside (similar to what happened before the last drop – shown in chart below).

If we do see another leg down, I would hope it’s with high volume as the market capitulates and we start to see some reversal signs around US$12,000. I’ll be looking for a bullish hammer on a high timeframe followed by a high-volume bullish engulfing candle at that key level of support with strength showing in oscillators. If that occurs, it’s when we will likely see a breakout of the downtrend we’ve been in since November 2021.

Example of what I’d like to see for a BTC reversal

*Example of BTC reversal in Mar 2020 (COVID CRASH)*

None of this is to say BTC hasn’t already reached its bottom and could start to reverse, having tested US$20,000 as a solid level of support. It’s simply my personal belief that we will visit lower price levels and to be honest, I hope for everyone who’s holding that I’m wrong.
For myself? I wouldn’t mind buying more BTC at US$12,000.

This Week’s Trades

This week, due to my bearish bias, at this stage I’m looking for coins that have seen some pump action while BTC has been ranging. From here I’ll enter into short positions.

CHZ/USDT

CHZ is a good example, having seen some great price action recently as it pumped back into some key resistance levels and is sitting currently in the golden pocket of the Fibonacci retracement tool.

CONV/USDT

Another thing to be on the lookout for is large exhaustion wicks like what we see on CONV. These show the coin had a huge pump and ultimately sellers are still in control. Short opportunities certainly exist in actions like this.

DORA/USDT

DORA is also coming into daily resistance after some pump days and is currently showing some indecision on low timeframes. This could remain a big daily wick and present a short opportunity below the 100 EMA.

Something to keep in mind is that BTC dominance (BTC.D) is dropping. This usually occurs when the market is scaling into ALTs or hedging into USDT/USD coins. Keep a close eye on these ALT movements because there’s a good chance some fake-outs will happen!

The Australian Crypto Convention

Myself and The Crypto Den team will be at the Australian Crypto Convention on the Gold Coast in September. We will be running workshops on how to read and trade these markets. Would love to see you there!

You can get discounted tickets using this CNA code: CRYPTONEWS

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The Crypto Den was created in 2017 to help the rapidly growing crypto community learn and understand the fundamentals of digital currencies and how to trade them.

Since then we have taught thousands of members the basics of technical analysis and trading strategies to further progress and perfect their trading abilities.

In the TradeRoom, you will be included in a supportive environment which encourages personal growth, education and community support.

It’s a place to share your trading ideas and follow other experienced traders’ feeds to help keep your finger on the pulse of such a volatile market!

TradeRoom: Our Weekly Crypto Trades Analysis – Jun 20, 2022

Post author By David Haslop
Post date June 21, 2022

Crypto Market Outlook

BTC finally retested the all-time high from 2017 and from here it’s very simple: we either confirm a new floor or break through it to US$12,000.

For the US$20,000 level to be confirmed as the bottom, it takes more than just a few candles. We need to see solid market structure with volume behind it. This will take a little time for the market to produce, and could take days or even weeks.

Once again, however, my opinion is we have more red to come (sorry! I know it’s been six months of bearish bias!). That said, we may see a relief rally to around US$28,000 and should that happen I plan to add to my short position and perhaps we visit US$12,000. If we don’t get a pullback in PA, then I’ll continue to ride my open shorts.

I still very much believe the entire bear flag I wrote about on April 11 will play out to the end at minimum. And dare I say we may even go further if the world economic climate doesn’t see a vast change in the coming months. How does buying BTC at US$6,000 sound?

Even if we zoom in on the 1H charts for our day traders, we see a failure to break and hold above 100 EMA confluent with the peak of a 1H rising wedge (bearish candlestick pattern).

This Week’s Trades

Because I still have a bearish outlook on the market, entering long trades or buy orders on ALT coins is high-risk and short-lived. So instead, what I’m looking for is ALTs that have seen a significant pump and in turn yield higher percentage gains if the market dumps again. Remember, you can still make serious ROI in a downtrending market.

Setups similar to the below chart of SNX is what I’m looking for – a clear retest and rejection from a new level of resistance (previously support). There are a few ALT setups like this already in play.

To enter before BTC decides if it’ll dead-cat bounce has higher risk and far more aggressive entries. Best practice would be to “wait and see”. If BTC pulls back – find entries. If BTC doesn’t – do nothing.

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Tags Bitcoin

Market Analysis The Crypto Den

TradeRoom: Our Weekly Crypto Trades Analysis – Jun 13, 2022

Post author By David Haslop
Post date June 13, 2022

Crypto Market Outlook

I’m BACK! I apologise to readers for my absence of late. Having a newborn is challenging enough and unfortunately we’ve had to make many hospital visits over the past month. But all is well!

Let’s get into it!

On April 11, I shared with you my thoughts around what I was seeing from BTC, and that was a huge bear flag forming (see image below) indicating further downside in the market. We have since dropped a further 40%. I do believe we are still likely to see an additional 20% drop from the current price level before we see a significant reversal. My first target to start scaling in on SPOT is US$20,000.

The TOTAL market cap is now down 65% from ATH, and I think in the coming days/weeks we will drop below the US$1 trillion valuation. On May 17 I shared the below chart showing another potential loss of over US$300 billion to US$500 billion, and you will see that the TOTAL has now shown a weekly close below its 200 EMA, which tells me the likelihood of this happening is getting higher.

Recent Performance

There have been two trades in particular that I’ve shared here numerous times that had great shorting potential: DOGE and ADA. These charts started back in December, if you’d like to take a look.

DOGE/USDT

DOGE is almost at my key Take Profit (TP) level of US$0.04, which will yield me a total of 730% profit from this entry using a 10x position.

ADA/USDT

An ADA target of US$0.18 is still on the table and at this point I will likely close my Short at around 800% profit using 10x leverage, and look to not only enter LONG positions but also scale into ADA on the SPOT market.

Current ADA chart

This Week’s Trades

I will absolutely NOT be entering new trades this week. We are mid-dump in a bearish market and it’s safer to stay out and just wait.

What I’ll be looking for are key levels on the daily and weekly charts for both BTC and ETH where I will enter SPOT positions and open longs. This is where patience is key.

If BTC and ETH both close a weekly candle at or below current levels, things will certainly go from bad to worse. Targets are outlined on the charts below.

Be patient, invest wisely and don’t stress. Crypto is still in its infancy of what it can accomplish!

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The Crypto Den was created in 2017 to help the rapidly growing crypto community learn and understand the fundamentals of digital currencies and how to trade them.

Since then we have taught thousands of members the basics of technical analysis and trading strategies to further progress and perfect their trading abilities.

Tags ADA, Bitcoin, Dogecoin, eth

Market Analysis The Crypto Den

TradeRoom: Our Weekly Crypto Trades Analysis – May 17, 2022

Post author By David Haslop
Post date May 17, 2022

Crypto Market Outlook

Good afternoon, beautiful people of Crypto Aus! I’ll be keeping today’s article short and about Bitcoin and the general market. New dad duties are keeping me away from my PC at the moment!

On May 2 I wrote that we could see the TOTAL crypto cap lose US$400 billion, and we did. What’s concerning at the moment is that unless we see some positive action soon, there could very much be another US$300 billion wiped off. The TOTAL market cap has now lost over 50% of its value since the market peak in November.

Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) has risen 8% in the past week and could see more people hedging out of ALTs and into BTC in the coming weeks also, meaning your favourite ALT coin could see some more blood if that happens.

Looking at the Bitcoin weekly chart, we can see BTC found a very solid level of support at US$28,000. It’s currently holding above and, if we can get just one high-volume green candle, we could see BTC rally to US$35,000-36,000 (following the green line), which could have us ranging again for a couple months. If BTC cannot close above US$31,000, the red path is likely to play out with a further 30% drop, taking us back to the 2017 ATH of US$20,000.

Regardless of which way we go, at this stage I still believe we will see US$20,000 before we see US$50,000, as indicated by my chart below:

BTC/USDT

The BTC CME Futures (BTC1!) chart also shows a new gap to be filled at the US$36,000 level, showing the green path above as a viable option as gaps are more likely to be filled if they fill sooner rather than later.

Does all this mean crypto is dead like we keep reading in MSM? God no! In 2018, BTC dropped 84% before mooning to over 2000%. If BTC drops back to US$20,000, that’s 70% from its ATH. There is still a long way to go up!

Trade safe, use risk management and above all, stay well and positive!

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Tags Bitcoin

Market Analysis The Crypto Den Trading

TradeRoom: Our Weekly Crypto Trades Analysis – May 10, 2022

Post author By David Haslop
Post date May 10, 2022

Crypto Market Outlook

Since last week, the crypto market has been hectic! We lost another US$200 billion from the TOTAL crypto cap since last week’s analysis article, which is approximately 50% of what we forecast.

There may be some temporary support and relief but I feel the bloodbath is not over.

Bitcoin has hit target number 1 on the downside with absolute perfection! Take a bow! Now remember folks, I trade in both LONG and SHORT conditions so I’m allowed to be a little excited by this. Not only do we make profits on the way down but we also get to buy cheaper BTC! The bear flag is well and truly under way now. As I said above, we could see a bounce soon with a relief rally but I just don’t feel like the bloodbath is over yet. Nevertheless, I’m scaling in and buying more BTC just in case.

If this US$30,000 region of support breaks to the downside, things will get very scary for those who are yet to weather a crypto winter, with some price objectives seeking out US$23,000, US$20,000 and sub-US$20,000 targets.

If you’re in the red now, stay strong. I have 100% faith that BTC will again make ATH and exceed expectations. This may take some time but I’m confident it will happen if it follows my chart analysis.

Last Week’s Performance

Well, aside from nailing BTC short I’ll share two trades that played well last week. This is the reason we say, “Don’t buy big green candles in a bear market”. We wait for those relief rallies, then short, based on technical analysis alone.

ZIL/USDT

Managed to snag a cheeky short on ZIL in its recent pump. We identified that ZIL was moving against other ALTS, and BTC having seen its little rally, entering short on both daily resistance and 200/100EMAs. This position is still open and on a leverage of 10x, so sitting currently at 213% ROI with a target of 400%+.

DOGE/USDT

One trade I keep going back to is DOGE. I’ve seen the short potential on this for weeks, if not months, and it’s STILL looking good. Last week I was lucky enough to short the “Elon Effect”, positioning me better than I anticipated (thanks Elon!). A 10x trade is currently sitting at 340% ROI.

I still expect further downside to US$0.04 if we don’t bounce here.

This Week’s Trades

No new trades for me this week as my wife and I have just welcomed a beautiful baby girl into the world, but I will quickly share my thoughts on BTC for you.

IF BTC can rally here we could see some green over the next couple weeks, but that still wouldn’t mean the bear moon is over. It could just be yet another relief rally!

Breaking US$30,000 support before any rally occurs, there’s really not much stopping her going to US$20,000.

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Tags Bitcoin, crypto, Dogecoin

Crypto News Market Analysis The Crypto Den Trading

TradeRoom: Our Weekly Crypto Trades Analysis – May 2, 2022

Post author By David Haslop
Post date May 3, 2022

Crypto Market Outlook

The TOTAL market cap lost US$100 billion over the weekend and is currently having a small retrace of that loss. I suspect this will be pretty short-lived, which would bring us to a very important last line of defence. If the TOTAL drops below US$1.58 trillion, there’s huge potential for a US$400 billion loss. This will undoubtedly hurt a lot of people, so please investigate stop losses and make sure you’re prepared for the worst-case scenario!

The BTC monthly closed just below that monthly support and has a window of opportunity to keep us in a ranging situation. Failing that, we get another bearish month and it’s anyone’s guess how low we could drop from here. If you zoom right out and take a good look at the monthly chart, you will see there’s really no structure between US$34,000 and US$14,000.

I’m putting forward some very bearish cases here and that does not mean it’s game over. There’s still opportunity for BTC to bounce, but it must happen above US$30,000! If that level breaks, then it will be a long winter in my opinion.

BTC is currently sitting on a weekly 100 EMA and some daily support. My bias is still that we see a bear flag that I wrote about last week play out over the next month or two. If so, ALTS will bleed hard.

Last Week’s Performance

ADA/USDT

ADA, like many others, is also at its last line of defence. I entered short last week and am now currently sitting at around 120% ROI. I’d like to see this trade reach approximately 800% in 10x.

DOGE/USDT

This entry was partially TA and partially luck! Last week I wrote about my thoughts on DOGE dropping 70%, then Elon decided to buy Twitter (as you do) and DOGE pumped. The luck part was that I didn’t enter right away and instead got in a short on the pump. I’m currently sitting at 170% ROI.

This Week’s Trades

TORN/USDT

I’ve been watching TORN since last week and have just entered a short trade today. Candlestick analysis is showing a lot of indecision at a crucial level of daily resistance. R:R looks good enough for me to enter.

TORN/USDT

TRX/USDT

A 2017 fan favourite, TRX, looks like it could be setting up for a short trade. It’s currently sitting at both daily 200 EMA and daily resistance. If we see BTC drop, this could present a prime entry for short trades.

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Tags ADA, Bitcoin, btc, Cardano, doge, Dogecoin, TORN, TRX, twitter

Market Analysis The Crypto Den

TradeRoom: Our Weekly Crypto Trades Analysis – Apr 25, 2022

Post author By David Haslop
Post date April 25, 2022

Crypto Market Outlook

Let’s dive straight into Bitcoin!

In my last article I outlined my thoughts around BTC painting a very large Bear Flag, and nothing has changed since then. BTC has in fact continued to drop as expected and is currently sitting on a very important price level at US$39,000. Breaking this support will confirm a lower high and bearish market structure. We have seen a fake out above US$40,000 and above the 200 EMA that was short-lived.

*Image of BTC chart from my last article*

ALTs are bleeding out, BTC dominance is rising with BTC price action dropping, the SPX and gold are also down, and if momentum continues I see the crypto market losing up to US$500 billion.

I hope for everyone’s sake that I’m wrong but we need to stay realistic. I’m not out to upset folks with any FUD or purposely sharing a pessimistic view, but I do think people should be prepared. Plan for the worst, aim for the best. The last thing I want to see is entire communities losing 90%+ of their investments like we saw in 2018.

This Week’s Trades

Keeping with my short bias, I’m looking for coins with large volume and market caps to paint some very large drops, two of which I’ve mentioned here on numerous occasions.

DOGE/USDT

I still see DOGE dropping up to 70%, which for me as a leveraged trader on 10x can produce a 700% trade. Two clear rejections on a daily equilibrium supports this. My target for DOGE is US$0.04.

ADA/USDT

Just like DOGE, I can see a 70%+ drop for ADA coming. I’ve been talking about these two coins for some time and how they could be huge short trades when the time is right. I think we could be getting closer! This may upset some holders, but US$0.17 isn’t unrealistic.

TORN/USDT

TORN has seen some relatively bullish price action recently and held quite well while the rest of the market has struggled. That said, I think it’s time for a correction here and if the rest of the market does dump, TORN is one of those that will lose a high percentage. It’s possible to see a 60% loss with a US$18.00 target.

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Tags ADA, Bitcoin, crypto, Dogecoin, TORN

Crypto News Market Analysis The Crypto Den Trading

TradeRoom: Our Weekly Crypto Trades Analysis – Apr 11, 2022

Post author By David Haslop
Post date April 11, 2022

Crypto Market Outlook

Well I’m back on the charts after two weeks with Covid (not fun!) and straightaway we can see BTC doing exactly what I was concerned about in my last analysis article. She’s broken out to the upside but failed to hold above that very important level of support.

*Image from my last article showing my concern for BTC*

The current price action could simply be painting a retest before continuing up, or we could be seeing a really big bear flag forming. My vote is for the latter. The bear flag price objective is usually the length of the “flag pole”, which would take the BTC price below US$20,000.
The rising price and lowering volume after a 50% market dump is indicative of a bear flag, in my opinion.

So what are we waiting for and how do we trade it? Well, as a price action trader I’m looking for key levels to either hold or break. If US$40,000 fails to hold and we create a lower low below US$37,000, I’d be feeling confident in shorts. If US$40,000 holds as support and we see some great bullish candlestick analysis in the region, I’ll scale into longs.

Again, my bias at this moment is bearish, as it has been since the end of last year. We are back below the daily 200 EMA and 100 EMA. I sure would love to buy more BTC sub-US$20,000!

This Week’s Trades

With a bearish bias, I’m looking for coins that have had recent pumps into key levels which could be setting up for shorts.

KNC/USDT

One I’m watching is KNC. It’s had some nice bullish PA up to its previous ATH exactly a year ago. It’s currently painting a big exhaustion wick on the daily and showing a decent bearish divergence on the 4H chart, all at key resistance.

JST/USDT

Watching JST for shorts at the moment, and we can see on the daily some buyer exhaustion on a lower high and with low volume. I’m inclined to short this back to US$0.06. Still 12 hours for daily close, so worth watching in my opinion.

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Basic Attention Token Chiliz Loopring Market Analysis Mirror Protocol The Crypto Den Trading

TradeRoom: Our Weekly Crypto Trades Analysis – Mar 28, 2022

Post author By David Haslop
Post date March 28, 2022

Crypto Market Outlook

Finally, after two months of a choppy sideways market, we have movement! The TOTAL cap and BTC have chosen the 30% chance of an upside breakout with the TOTAL sitting just above US$2 trillion. This is the first solid change in market structure we’ve seen in months, and we’re now above the daily 200 EMA. Still some work to do, though! Let’s take a closer look.

For a BTC long trade, I’ll be waiting for a pullback to enter. What I want to see here is a confirmed and clear S&R flip. What I’m cautious of is a bull trap (something like the white arrow line happening), which is why we wait for confirmation. A test on support followed by some positive candlestick analysis and maintaining price action above that 200 EMA on the daily will support this. This is what SAFE traders do. We don’t just ape into a pump and hope for moon.

If this push fails, you can see I have a game plan ready either way and this will also be the case for any ALT trades.

This Week’s Trades

CHZ/USDT

Currently being held up on the daily 200 EMA, I see opportunity for CHZ to pull back and confirm an S&R flip for a long entry. Again, a positive change in market structure is great – we just need that first confirmation.

BAT/USDT

BAT has broken out of a four-month downtrend and tested it positively with a nice bounce. If BTC price action continues, BAT could see a decent 50% pump. Like all coins at the moment, there are still some walls to push through but the risk to reward ratio (R:R) on this trade looks good. I’d expect this to play well with a big green candle above US$1.00.

BAT/USDT

MIR/USDT

Quite an aggressive trade getting in long here before a breakout, but the R:R is pretty good. MIR is lagging behind the pack and a 50% pump isn’t out of the question.

MIR/USDT

LRC/USDT

LRC is forming a bullish pennant right on the 100 and 200 daily EMA, as well as daily resistance. A breakout here and there’s potential for 70%! If you look left, you can see LRC did 70% over only four days back in November 2021.

LRC/USDT

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In the TradeRoom you will be included in a supportive environment which encourages personal growth, education and community support.

It’s a place to share your trading ideas and follow other experienced traders’ feeds to help keep your finger on the pulse of such a volatile market!

Market Analysis The Crypto Den

TradeRoom: Our Weekly Crypto Trades Analysis – Mar 21, 2022

Post author By David Haslop
Post date March 21, 2022

Crypto Market Outlook

The market is constricting into a decision point. Up or down? Well, we’ll know soon. The TOTAL, like BTC, is still in this symmetrical triangle pattern. Like I said last week, this is generally a continuation pattern with a 70% chance of persisting with the current trend, leaving a 30% chance of reversal. In the chart below, you can see that in both directions we have a high probability of moving 30%, leaving us currently sitting at an equilibrium (EQ).

Elliott Wave Theory would suggest we are in this bearish symmetrical triangle, also with an ABCDE consolidation. While ever it remains below the daily 200EMA, this will be my bias, which I’ve stated many times.

BTC is painting the same pattern and scenario. Despite popular belief, I’m not a “permabear” – I just trade what’s in front of me and even though we have seen some small pumps in price action, I’m still not seeing anything overly bullish. Does this mean BTC is all doom and gloom? No. It just means that for me, it’s bearish until it’s not, and that point of invalidation is a breakout above local market structure (US$45,760) and the daily 200EMA, and to hold above for a few days to a week.

BTC/USDT

Last Week’s Performance

Again, like the week before last, I didn’t enter any new positions. The reason for this is I don’t like to trade a ranging market. I like to trade with A trend. And while ever it’s ranging, it’s NOT trending.

I still have 11 short positions open but have not opened anything new in two weeks. I’m waiting for the market to decide which trend it’s going to follow. Continue down? Or reverse and head up? Either way, I’m waiting.

Here is a visual representation of what I mean by my no trade zone:

This Week’s Trades

WAVES/USDT

This is a tough one due to the fundamentals surrounding WAVES at the moment with all that’s happening in Ukraine, but from a technical standpoint I’m seeing a daily bearish divergence at daily resistance with declining volume. So we could certainly see a retracement here soon. I’ll be entering a small position.

BTC/USD

For BTC, I’m hoping we get a decision this week. One way or another, I have a plan and so should you! If we break to the upside, I’ll wait for the pullback to confirm new support and enter LONG. If we break to the downside, I’ll do the reverse and wait for the retest on enter SHORT. As a trader trading on leverage, it doesn’t matter to me.

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